Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG
Unternehmen: Aves One AG
Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Kursziel: 13.50 EUR
Analyst: Cosmin Filker; Marcel Goldmann
Sale of the loss-making container business, Higher future profitability and
better planning ability available, Negative and positive effects balance
each other out and therefore we confirm the price target of EUR13.50;
In an announcement dated 18 March 2021, Aves One AG announced the complete
sale of its maritime container portfolio. The company had already gradually
withdrawn from this business segment in previous reporting periods by
reducing its container portfolio, so that the current step is surprising at
this point in time, but should be seen as a consistent implementation of
the focus on the rail segment. In the container segment, which is a pure
commodity business, there is a downward trend in returns. However, this is
offset by comparatively expensive financing at Aves One AG, so that the
container segment was loss-making in the past financial years, adjusted for
The sale of the container segment, which is expected to be completed in the
coming months, will generate a net cash inflow of $23.8 million. In all
likelihood, however, this transaction will result in a book loss of EUR33.5
million. As this is to be taken into account in the 2020 financial
statements if possible, Aves One AG will thus report a significant decline
in the after-tax result. Against the backdrop of the resulting significant
reduction in equity, which had amounted to EUR38.14 million as at 30
September 2020, the company is considering measures to strengthen equity.
Among other things, the conversion of an existing loan in the amount of
around EUR 24 million into a hybrid loan, which will be allocated to equity
as at 31 December 2020, should result in a strengthening of the equity
With the sale of the container segment, there will be no further exchange
rate effects in the future, which in some cases had a considerable impact
on the company's earnings picture in the past financial years. In addition,
the focus on the rail and swap body segment will increase the reliability
of the business development as well as the overall company profitability.
This is also against the background of the discontinuation of the high
interest rate loans for the container segment, as a result of which the
average nominal interest rate is approaching the 3.0 % mark. We therefore
rate the sale positively overall.
In the course of the current company announcement, the management of Aves
One AG has announced the revenues of the Rail segment for the past
financial year 2020. With sales revenues of around EUR 83 million (previous
year: EUR 76.13 million), the previous year's figure was exceeded by 9.0 %.
The basis for this is the successive expansion of the wagon fleet in recent
years, which was increased by a further 12% to more than 11,000 freight
wagons in 2020 with investments of EUR90.8 million. For 2021, the Executive
Board therefore expects revenues from the rail and swap body business of
more than EUR100 million.
With the complete discontinuation of container sales, revenue in 2021 will
be below the previous level. EBITDA will also decline, but overall a higher
level of profitability can be expected. However, the expected
disproportionately strong decline in financial expenses should not take
full effect until the coming financial year 2022. According to management
discussions, the economic transfer of the container segment will take place
on 1 January 2021, but the financial expenses will be allocated to Aves One
AG until the actual transfer. Consequently, the 'steady state' of the rail
and swap body business will not become visible until 2022.
With unchanged forecasts for 2020, we expect revenues of EUR 119.15 million
and unchanged EBITDA of EUR 86.44 million. However, the book loss of EUR
33.5 million is likely to burden the after-tax result, which is expected to
be clearly negative at EUR -23.45 million. In 2021, we expect revenues of
EUR 104.45 million, in line with the company's guidance. As mentioned, the
expected after-tax result of EUR 4.96 million should not yet benefit from
the discontinuation of the expensive loans in the container segment, as
financial expenses of the container segment are still partially included.
This should only be the case in 2022, when we expect a jump in the after-
tax result to EUR 11.06 million on forecast revenues of EUR 120.12 million.
The result of our DCF valuation model is a constant target price of
EUR13.50 (previously: EUR13.50), which means that the positive and negative
effects of this transaction cancel each other out. The lower equity related
to the book loss is offset by the higher profitability of the Rail
business. We confirm our BUY-Rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
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Date (time) of completion: 23.03.2021 (9:40 am)
Date (time) first transmission: 23.03.2021 (11:30 am)
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------
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